Hoodie Analytics projects the Commonwealth could command 4% of national cannabis sales as incoming Governor Abigail Spanberger prepares to pursue adult-use retail legislation.
Virginia just leveled up. After years of stop-start cannabis reform, voters elected Abigail Spanberger as governor on November 4, setting the stage for the state’s long-awaited entry into adult-use cannabis.
Spanberger has been clear about her stance: legalization, done right, means a safe, transparent, and fair market that reinvests cannabis tax revenue back into Virginia communities. With her win, the path toward retail sales looks real.
This week, Hoodie Analytics co-founder and president Kris Walker shared a chart that lit up LinkedIn and the industry. His message was simple but bold: “A fully developed recreational adult-use program in Virginia represents almost 4% of total U.S. cannabis sales and nearly 7% of future growth.”
Hoodie’s analysis pegs Virginia’s potential at roughly $2.5 billion in annual sales once the market matures. That scale would be comparable to recent annual sales in Massachusetts and below Michigan’s latest totals, underscoring Virginia’s potential to become a Mid-Atlantic leader. See Massachusetts’ 2024 adult-use total of about $1.65 billion and Michigan’s 2024 total of roughly $3.27 billion (per CRA reporting).
For now, Virginians can legally possess up to an ounce of cannabis and grow up to four plants per household, but retail sales haven’t started. A legislative commission has been preparing a retail bill for the 2026 session. Earlier 2025 retail frameworks that referenced May 2026 were passed by the legislature but vetoed.
For comparison, Michigan topped $3 billion in legal cannabis sales in 2024. Under state law, adult-use purchases are subject to a 10% excise tax plus 6% sales tax. The Michigan Treasury separately reported more than $331 million available for distribution from the Marihuana Regulation Fund for FY 2024 (excise-tax-based, fiscal-year accounting).
Walker’s post captured the optimism swirling through the sector. “ …
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Author: High Times / High Times
